2010 Mountain West Conference Tournament Preview

This season, the Mountain West Conference enjoyed is most competitive season of men’s basketball since the conference’s inception in 1999.  BYU and perennial bubble team San Diego State were expected to top the conference in preseason polls, but New Mexico stepped up as the elite team in the conference.  So what can we expect from this year’s conference tournament?  Here’s a look at each team and what to watch for in the MWC tourney.

#1 New Mexico Lobos (28-3, 14-2 MWC)

After being the pre-season No. 5 team in the MWC, Steve Alford’s team now sits atop the conference and in the national top 10.  New Mexico came roaring out of the gates this season with a 12-0 start, and ripped through the conference at 14-2.  Impressively, this team won its road games at UNLV and BYU this season, locations that are (along with Albuquerque) the toughest venues in the conference.

First Game: The winner of the 8-9 game between Wyoming and Air Force.  New Mexico has beaten both of these teams by 20-plus points, but has also squeaked out 2- and 3-point wins against them.  So while the Lobos will not be able to simply show up and win, decent discipline and effort will easily get them to the semis.

Looking Ahead:  The Lobos get the winner of San Diego State and Colorado State in the second round.  SDSU is a tough matchup, as the Aztecs handed New Mexico one of its few losses, and took them to overtime in The Pit.  New Mexico is definitely the strength of the conference, but the Lobos are by no means going to walk through the tournament.  Surviving SDSU should mean either BYU or UNLV in the title game.

Players To Watch: Darington Hobson and Roman Martinez.  Hobson was just named as the MWC Player of the Year, averaging 16 points, 9 rebounds, and almost 5 assists per game.  Martinez is a sharpshooter who can swing games from behind the arc, as he averages 14 points per game and is shooting 43 % on 3-pointers this season.

Secures NCAA bid if: LOCK

Playing For: A high seed in the NCAA tournament.  If they win the conference tournament, a 3-seed is a virtual lock for the Lobos, and they will at least be considered for a 2-seed (their record would then be 31-3).  If they fall in the conference tourney, the Lobos should still be a 3-seed, unless they suffer a disastrous loss in the opening round, in which case they may fall to a 4- or 5-seed.

#2 BYU Cougars (28-4, 13-3 MWC)

The preseason MWC favorite, BYU lived up to its expectations in every way except by falling to New Mexico twice, which earned them the No. 2 seed behind the Lobos.  Averaging 83 points per game, the Cougars know how to score, and they have been held under 70 points only three times.  At one point, BYU was 21-1 and sported the best record in the nation.  This is a solid team with good guard play and a good bench, and can fill it up from three if it gets hot.

First Game: TCU.  This is a very favorable matchup for BYU, which has beaten the Frogs by 20 at home and by 30 on the road.  The only thing working against the Cougars in this game is that this will be their second game in a row against TCU, which can sometimes cause problems. With that said, BYU should definitely advance.

Looking Ahead:  Assuming a quarterfinal victory, the Cougars will play the winner of UNLV/Utah.  Utah beat UNLV both times this season, and that result may be what BYU should wish for.  Otherwise, the Cougars will have to deal with the Runnin’ Rebs once again.  Vegas is still a place where BYU has not proven it can win.

Players To Watch:  Jimmer Fredette and Jonathan Tavernari.  Fredette averages 21 points per game and exploded for 49 against Arizona early in the year, but has struggled as of late after battling mono and a stomach virus.  Tavernari just seems to get under people’s skin and can shoot from deep, but can also shoot his team out of games when he isn’t on.

Secures NCAA bid if: LOCK

Playing For: The highest seed BYU has enjoyed in a while.  BYU has been stuck in the 8-9 game for what seems like 20 years.  An MWC tourney title may earn BYU a 4-seed.  A trip to the MWC title game should secure the Cougars a 5-seed.  Anything less and they will be on the 5/6 line.

#3 UNLV Rebels (23-7, 11-5 MWC)

UNLV is a solid team that has two puzzling losses to Utah and another to USC—decent teams, but teams the Rebels should be much better than.  Vegas also has wins against Louisville, BYU, and New Mexico.  While they are a good team that may be difficult to read at times, we do know that the Rebels are well-coached under Lon Kruger, and as always, they will enjoy home-court advantage in hosting the tournament at the Thomas & Mack Center.

First Game: Utah.  The Utes did win both games in the regular season.  However, Utah also limped to the finish line and can really struggle to score at times.  There’s no reason the Rebels can’t advance.

Looking Ahead: The Rebels should see BYU in the semifinals.  BYU has played them tough, but winning in Vegas has been the day that never comes for the Cougars. If the Rebels can get past Utah, it wouldn’t be very surprising to see UNLV in the title game.

Player To Watch:  Tre’Von Willis.  A transfer three years ago from Memphis, Willis is UNLV’s leading scorer.  He does struggle with his shot at times, but has several 30-plus-point games on his resume this season.

Secures NCAA bid if: LOCK

Playing For: A shot at the Sweet 16 by getting out of the 8-9 game in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. A MWC tourney title could push the Rebels to a 7-seed.  Otherwise, they will land at 8 or 9.

#4 San Diego State Aztecs (22-8, 11-5 MWC)

Here we are again in March, and once again, there sits San Diego State on the bubble.  Down the stretch, Joe Lunardi can pretty much plant SDSU in the “Last 4 In” or “Last 4 Out” depending on if the Aztecs won or lost their most recent game.  SDSU doesn’t have much by way of impressive wins outside of beating New Mexico at home.  The Aztecs lost to BYU twice, and the other good team they played was Saint Mary’s, and they were destroyed by 22.  This is a talented team, but it will have to put it all together to avoid seeing the NIT again.

First Game: Colorado State.  SDSU did beat Colorado State both times this year, but the Rams are the sleeper pick of the tournament.  They looked good until dropping five straight down the stretch.  CSU is athletic enough to win, but the Aztecs should be able to handle them.

Looking Ahead: The curse of the 4-seed is that it has to play the 1-seed in the second round.  The Aztecs did handle New Mexico at home, so SDSU can definitely spring the upset, but New Mexico is hot and it will be a tall task.

Player To Watch:  The MWC Freshman of the Year, Kawhi Leonard.  The youngster has been solid down low for the Aztecs, averaging 12 points and nearly 10 rebounds a game.

Secures NCAA bid if: They win the tournament.  Reaching the title game may also secure them a bid as they will likely have to beat New Mexico to get there.  However, there are only a handful of at-large bids to go around.

Playing For: To not play in the NIT again.  If SDSU can obtain an NCAA bid, it will likely be a 12- or 13-seed.

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#5 Colorado State Rams (16-14, 7-9 MWC)

Colorado State started the year in promising fashion, going into conference play with a 9-5 record.  But by the end of the season, the Rams suffered a five-game losing streak in conference.  The Rams are an athletic team, but could never seem to put anything consistent together.

First Game: San Diego State.  It’s hard to see any of the top seeds going down, but if an upset does happen, it will likely be the Rams who will come away with a victory.

Looking Ahead: If CSU can spring the upset, the Rams would see New Mexico in the second round.  That would be the end of the road.

Player To Watch:  Post man Andy Ogide.  (That’s “post man” as in “plays in the post,” not like the mailman).  The team’s high scorer at only 12 per game, Ogide is efficient from the field at 54 %, and he pulls down almost 7 rebounds a game.

Secures NCAA bid if: Must win the tournament.

Playing For: Pride.  This is a team looking to move its program in the right direction. Getting one game in the tourney would be a victory for the Rams.

#6 Utah Utes  (14-16, 7-9 MWC)

Utah did beat Utah State and Illinois this season, but the Utes lost to Illinois State at home by double digits and also to a 7-24 Pepperdine team.  This season has been a struggle for the Utes, a letdown after last year’s NCAA tourney appearance.

First Game: UNLV.  As covered earlier, Utah did win both times against the Rebs this year.  Yet, it’s hard to see UNLV falling in the tournament.  Utah just doesn’t have the offense to keep up with UNLV… especially in Vegas.

Looking Ahead: Maybe some fun and frivolity after the game… and then a head start on spring break.

Player To Watch:  Big man (and acclaimed record producer … wait, it’s a different guy?  Totally lessens the intrigue…) David Foster.  Utah doesn’t have a go-to scorer, so the 7-footer will need to have an impact on at least one end of the floor for Utah to pick up any wins.

Secures NCAA bid if: Must win the tournament.

#7 TCU Horned Frogs  (13-18, 5-11 MWC)

TCU’s chasm between football and basketball has been pretty large.  There hasn’t really been much going for the Frogs when it comes to the cowhide.

First Game: BYU.  Sorry TCU fans, this will be a short tournament.  There’s not much hope to be found against a team you lost to by an average of 25 points during the regular season.

Looking Ahead: Sept. 4 against Baylor.  The football team returns almost all of its starters and should start ranked in at least the top 15. Yeah, the basketball outlook is that bleak for the Frogs in Las Vegas.

Player To Watch:  Workhorse Zvonko Buljan averages 12 points and 9 rebounds for TCU.

Secures NCAA bid if: Must win the tournament.

#8 Wyoming Cowboys  (10-20, 3-13 MWC)

If it wasn’t for a home game against Air Force, Wyoming would have finished the season on a 10-game losing streak.

First Game: Air Force.  The teams split their season series, both winning at home.  Wyoming can score, but doesn’t play much defense.  The game rates as a toss-up.

Looking Ahead: A win gets you the No. 8 team in the country – New Mexico – on the second day of a back-to-back.  Lots of free time in the future to do ... well… whatever one does in Laramie.

Player To Watch:  Afam Muojeke is Wyoming’s leading scorer at 17 points per game.

Secures NCAA bid if: A major natural disaster prevents every team but Air Force from reaching Las Vegas.

#9 Air Force Falcons  (9-20, 1-15 MWC)

Hey, 8-5 ain’t a bad start!  Like the football team, the Falcons have a strategy to minimize their size disadvantages.  They slow the game down and minimize possessions, so they average only 57 points per game.  They just haven’t had anything going for them this season.

First Game: Wyoming.  The Falcons beat the ‘Pokes at home for their only conference win of the regular season.

Looking Ahead: The horizon holds the same view for Air Force: a matchup with New Mexico.

Player To Watch:  6-10 big man Sammy Schafer.  It’s just fun to imagine that guy trying to fit in a plane.

Secures NCAA bid if: The President and Congress mandate that all service academies get auto-bids into the tournament.

By: Brett Hein & Zach Bloxham
DFN Sports Guest Writers